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PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 05:13 am 
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The NKs have absolutely lost their mind with the latest attack on South Korea...

Shelling civilian areas invites massive counterattack and with the condition their regime is in I dont think they can stand it if they get hit hard at the top of the food chain...

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 19:52 pm 
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And just like after Chenoan nothing will happen save for some joint exercises and it will just continue. North Korea basically just does what they want at this point and everyone just obliges to them, like they did since 94.


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 28, 2010 04:47 am 
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Right now would be a good time to take out the leadership. The country would fall apart like a house of cards...

There is already infighting for control, so if we knocked off all the leaders the government "body" would die as well...

To bad Obama is in the whitehouse as he just doesnt have the balls for such action...

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 29, 2010 00:50 am 
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CAG Hotshot wrote:
Right now would be a good time to take out the leadership. The country would fall apart like a house of cards...

There is already infighting for control, so if we knocked off all the leaders the government "body" would die as well...

To bad Obama is in the whitehouse as he just doesnt have the balls for such action...


Eh it doesn't matter who's there, Obama, Bush, Clinton, hell it could even be Reagan, nothing would be happening to North Korea. I thought that we'd be at war with them in 2005 because A) Bush seemed hell bent on stopping them and B) I figured they'd have a nuclear weapon in 2005. Well they had it in 2006 and Bush really just didn't give a shit about them and why would he, we were quite busy with Iraq and Afghanistan. It's all good, North Korea's going to remain their catastrophe that they are and they'll be like Cuba, just going to be there as a thorn in our side for good.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 29, 2010 02:52 am 
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Unless the wrong faction gains control and the war goes hot...

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 22:37 pm 
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CAG Hotshot wrote:
Unless the wrong faction gains control and the war goes hot...


Eh I'm thinking most of the generals in North Korea's Army would rather just fold the country than watch millions die.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 06:10 am 
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By what that A-hole at wikileaks has released it looks like the Chinese agree with you...

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 19:57 pm 
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CAG Hotshot wrote:
By what that A-hole at wikileaks has released it looks like the Chinese agree with you...


Everyone in that country lives in fear, from the proles in the ammo factories to the generals in the military. If Dear Leader says you go, you go.


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 12, 2010 03:22 am 
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That is just my point... The "dear leader' cant say anything when he is dead, which is very soon to be...

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 12, 2010 13:51 pm 
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CAG Hotshot wrote:
That is just my point... The "dear leader' cant say anything when he is dead, which is very soon to be...


Well we'll see how Dear Leader's son does. He could either be one of those douchenozzle sons of a leader and be a complete moron, which has happened more time in history then any of us can count. If that's the case, plan some holiday trips to North Korea when it opens :). He could be a smart SOB and the chances of him ending Juche nonsense is pretty good (not sure where this kid was educated but a lot of those kids get educated in the West so). Or we could just have another Kim Jong-Il clone. Hard to tell with the total lack of info coming out of NK. On the plus side, it should make CNN interesting for a while when it happens.


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 19, 2010 12:49 pm 
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Kim Jong-un was IIRC educated in Switzerland.

But he at the moment has nothing to his name which would justify him the future title of Great Leader. Given the history of the DPRK, and the huge manipulation of situations with the intention of giving Kim Jong-il the legitimacy to succeed his father, I can see this being another set of manipulations fomenting a crisis, which - at least as far as the DPRK internal propaganda will go - will be defused thanks to the "brilliance" of Kim Jong-un.

From the rest of the world's point of view, I think KJI's oldest son, Kim Jong-nam, would have been the better choice for a successor - he's long been an advocate of the DPRK implementing Chinese-style reforms, which KJI has always opposed. I've read that Kim Jong-nam prefers reforms along the Vietnamese model, which could also be a good thing, from the West's point of view. But who knows, perhaps Jong-nam is holding his cards close to his chest until daddy dies, and only afterwards he will announce reforms of the Chinese style (we can hope, anyways).

War: I doubt DPRK will actually start a war - they know they've lost the ability to win a war already in the 1980s. I think their main goal is the survival of the regime, and they know that war means the regime ends. China won't help them and they know it (in fact, thanks to wikileaks I know that China's preference is a reunified Korea governed by Seoul; it seems that only Japan desires the division of Korea to continue).

Last thing, I have to wonder... Kim Il-sung already in the early 1990s was considering reforming DPRK along the Chinese model. By then, KJI had already cemented himself as the successor (manipulating the situation to ensure that Kim Il-sung chooses KJI over his brother Kim Pyong-il), and there are quite a few rumours that KJI had his father killed... I have to wonder, had Il-sung chosen Pyong-il to succeed him, how things would have developed... or had Il-sung announced earlier his desire to reform, Chinese-style... things would be very different now, I'm sure. (KJI might even have become a star, a world-renowned movie director...)

In any event, I'm fairly confident that the most that will happen is some minor skirmishes, nothing worse than things that have already happened over the years. Even if KJI orders an attack, I don't believe the Army brass would comply. I think the sooner KJI dies, the better - because then Jong-un can start the reforms. Chinese style or Vietnam style doesn't matter... both will mean some significant change and integration into the world.

One last comment. This probably won't win me many friends here, but I think my username already succeeded in that, so doesn't matter ;) ... Juche itself wasn't such a bad idea - a desire for self-reliance is a good thing; in fact, until the mid-1970s, the North's economy was stronger than the South's. The bad idea was/is KJI's Songun policy. And an interesting aside to it, in the last revision of the DPRK constitution, KJI had all references to communism and Marxism-Leninism removed...

So yeah, let's all hope some "accident" soon befalls KJI, and DPRK can start reforming itself. Jong-un has lived in the west, so there's a good chance big changes will come after KJI isn't looking over his shoulder anymore.


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 19, 2010 20:41 pm 
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The NKs are on borrowed time... The regime will collapse either through war or through continued strangulation of their economy...

The Chinese know it, which is why they are not oppossed to Seouls rule of the north.

As for whether the US would try to move bases into the north once it is combined with the south under Seoul's control, as spelled out in the leaked docs, I doubht we would want to do so overtly...

There would be no reason to justify it, as continued US presence on the penisula would probably be reduced as a result of the extermination of the gov in the north.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 13:55 pm 
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Y'know, if the US could somehow guarantee to China - convincingly - that US troops would not move north of the DMZ after the collapse of the Kim dynasty, I wouldn't even be surprised if China helped to bring that about.

China has two main concerns: 1, US troops stationed right on their border, and 2, in the case of an uncontrolled collapse, a massive influx of refugees from the North.

I think the refugee question - and with it, the economic question - is the biggest one of them all. Certainly the South wouldn't be able to support the north properly in an instant-reunification scheme - even Germany had long trouble with that, and East Germany was an advanced paradise compared to DPRK, so I think ROK would simply drown. So I would think the best idea would be a gradual transition, Chinese-style, to slowly build the north's infrastructure and economy while restructuring the government. Only after the north has a stable market economy should they even consider reunification...


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 19:14 pm 
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CAG Hotshot wrote:
The NKs are on borrowed time... The regime will collapse either through war or through continued strangulation of their economy...

The Chinese know it, which is why they are not oppossed to Seouls rule of the north.

As for whether the US would try to move bases into the north once it is combined with the south under Seoul's control, as spelled out in the leaked docs, I doubht we would want to do so overtly...

There would be no reason to justify it, as continued US presence on the penisula would probably be reduced as a result of the extermination of the gov in the north.


That and there's been a lot of contention over the past 10 years or so within the South to our presence. I remember one of their President's talking about how the US should leave Korea alone. Granted politicians can't be trusted, obviously there was enough sentiment at the time wherever he was talking to warrant kissing some ass. I have to think even the dumbest of their leaders would know that if the US presence suddenly left, the Norkies would go forth and cross.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 23, 2010 01:28 am 
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That was alot longer than 10 years ago... Also the majority of the SKs want the US there, especially after the actions by the north in the last year with the sinking of the SK warship and the artillery attack.

You need to update your sources.

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